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Bowling Green

Bowling Green State University · 2026 · Mid-American

Efficiency
-26.6
138th FBS
Record
0-2
Conf. record
Conf. finish
13th
proj. of 13
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Bowling Green is 0-2 and ranked 138th in overall efficiency. Their 127th-ranked defense carries them, with a 138th-ranked offense. They run the ball on 56% of offensive plays with a 138th-ranked rushing attack and pass the ball on the remaining 44% of plays with a 91st-ranked passing attack.

Quadrant record

By opponent strength, adjusted for where the game was played.

Q1
0-1
Q2
0-0
+3 left
Q3
0-0
+1 left
Q4
0-1
+6 left

Projected wins

Per-game win probabilities combined across the full schedule.

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Expected: 1.9 wins
Strength of Record
126th
-1.5 wins above a 25th-ranked team's expectation
Strength of Schedule
to date
42nd
full season
87th
AP poll
Unranked
Conf. sched. difficulty
95th
a 25th-ranked team would win ~6.8 conference games on this schedule

The resume

Every game on the schedule. Click a row for the game breakdown (played) or the matchup projection (upcoming).

WkOpponentConfOpp rankResultExp. marginWin probGameScoreQuad
1vs Tarleton StateUACL 1320-4.00%-30.9Q4
2@ NebraskaBig Ten#29L 756-40.10%-35.4Q1
3@ Iowa StateBig 12#60Preview-32.33%Q2
4vs South FloridaAmerican Athletic#43Preview-29.94%Q3
5@ Miami-OHMid-American#96Preview-22.79%Q4
6vs Sacramento StateMid-American#135Preview-2.045%Q4
7vs Ball StateMid-American#126Preview-8.032%Q4
8@ BuffaloMid-American#130Preview-11.026%Q4
9@ Western MichiganMid-American#38Preview-36.52%Q2
11vs Kent StateMid-American#131Preview-5.438%Q4
12@ ToledoMid-American#58Preview-33.13%Q2
13vs MassachusettsMid-American#121Preview-9.229%Q4

2 played · 0-2. Expected margin and gamescore use the latest ratings — a completed game shows what the model would say now, not that week.

The season

The model’s read on Bowling Green, recomputed after every week. Toggle between overall, offensive, and defensive efficiency (each with a dot for that week’s game) or the FanBoardHQ CFP rank.

-32.6-17.7-2.8-31-35Week 0Week 2
Line = the model's read each week; dots = that week's game (green above the line, red below).

Passing & rushing

Opponent-adjusted, FBS-only. The bar is the blended Eff rank — EPA/play (scoring value), success rate (staying on schedule), and yards/play (explosiveness), each standardized against the FBS field. The three ranks below each bar are those components, so you can see what's driving it.

Offense
PassingEff 91st
SR 89thYPP 96thEPA 89th
RushingEff 138th
SR 138thYPP 138thEPA 138th
Defense
Pass defenseEff 129th
SR 123rdYPP 129thEPA 129th
Rush defenseEff 127th
SR 121stYPP 136thEPA 117th
Dropback rate 44%Tempo +3.7 snaps/game vs. averageFaced pass defenses ranked 11th on average
Success rate by down

Their offense vs. what their defense allows.

1st · Offense: 36%1st · Defense allowed: 51%1st2nd · Offense: 30%2nd · Defense allowed: 59%2nd3rd/4th · Offense: 38%3rd/4th · Defense allowed: 42%3rd/4th
OffenseDefense allowed
Points by quarter

Scored vs. allowed, all regular-season games.

Q1 · Scored: 0.0Q1 · Allowed: 21.0Q1Q2 · Scored: 7.0Q2 · Allowed: 31.0Q2Q3 · Scored: 3.0Q3 · Allowed: 0.0Q3Q4 · Scored: 10.0Q4 · Allowed: 17.0Q4
ScoredAllowed

What kind of team is this?

Every team by offensive and defensive efficiency (points/game vs. an average team, higher is better on both). Click a dot for that team.

elite bothdefense-ledrebuildingoffense-ledBowling GreenOffenseDefense
Bowling Green Offense vs Defense, 2026
Offensive EffRanked 138th
-15.9
Field position: -0.6Finishing drives: -15.2
Field position -0.6Finishing drives -15.2= -15.9
Offensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 86th · Finishing 138th

Defensive EffRanked 127th
-8.1
Field position: -0.2Finishing drives: -7.8
Field position -0.2Finishing drives -7.8= -8.1
Defensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 81st · Finishing 129th

1.00 points per drive on offense, 3.45 allowed — starting, on average, at their own 26.

Play-calling & efficiency

What the offense did, by quarter and by down — raw, not opponent-adjusted.

By quarter
Quarter (att.)Pass / rushSuccessYd/play
Q1(22)27% / 73%32%3.6
Q2(25)36% / 64%28%4.2
Q3(29)48% / 52%34%4.9
Q4(34)53% / 47%41%6.6
how play-calling and results shifted through games — (n) = plays, season total
Passing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(18)10.667%10.0
2nd(13)7.631%5.4
3rd(16)8.244%7.5
4th(0)
All (47)49%7.9
Rushing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(29)10.017%2.5
2nd(24)8.129%3.6
3rd(7)6.314%3.1
4th(3)1.067%1.3
All (63)24%2.9

Bowling Green, all games.